AI NFL Predictions, Graded in Public
An independent win probability for every NFL game, published before kickoff and graded after the whistle. The model is a margin-Elo rating with a separate quarterback ledger; a research layer checks injuries, starters and venue before anything is published. Every pick below is a real published pick, including the losses.
Every graded NFL pick
Published before the event, graded after it. Losses are never removed.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Model % | Price | Tier | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | 50% | +125 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-14 | New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | 56% | +130 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins | Las Vegas Raiders | 53% | -194 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | 56% | -120 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders | Philadelphia Eagles | 68% | -222 | LEAN | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets | Tennessee Titans | 54% | -149 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens | 56% | -181 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills | Houston Texans | 57% | -108 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons | Pittsburgh Steelers | 65% | -167 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cincinnati Bengals | 64% | -210 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | 56% | -150 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | 61% | -194 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots | Seattle Seahawks | 65% | -190 | COIN FLIP | Won |
NFL prediction questions
How does the NFL model make a prediction?
It rates every team on margin of victory rather than win-loss, carries a separate quarterback adjustment, and accounts for rest and home field. Neutral-site games get zero home-field advantage. A research layer then verifies the confirmed starting quarterback and the current injury report before a number is allowed to publish.
Does the NFL model beat the closing line?
Not on raw accuracy — no public-data NFL model reliably beats the closing line, and ours does not claim to. It is judged on calibration and on closing line value: whether the price published beats where the market closes.
When are NFL picks published?
Thursday games publish once both starting quarterbacks are confirmed. Sunday games publish after Friday's final injury report, when official Out, Doubtful and Questionable designations are known. A game whose starter has not been named is held off the board entirely rather than priced on a guess.
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