AI NFL Predictions, Graded in Public
An independent win probability for every NFL game, published before kickoff and graded after the whistle. The model is a margin-Elo rating with a separate quarterback ledger; a research layer checks injuries, starters and venue before anything is published. Every pick below is a real published pick, including the losses.
Every graded NFL pick
Published before the event, graded after it. Losses are never removed.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Model % | Price | Tier | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs | Seattle Seahawks | 57% | -151 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | 53% | -211 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-26 | Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns | 55% | -132 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 59% | -144 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-26 | Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos | 64% | -225 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | 50% | +131 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-26 | Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | 62% | -175 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | 59% | -190 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | 55% | -160 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-23 | Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots | Chicago Bears | 52% | -128 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers | 62% | -120 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 55% | -142 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | 51% | -115 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | 54% | -245 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-19 | Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills | 63% | -235 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 60% | -145 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-19 | Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers | Philadelphia Eagles | 50% | -105 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-19 | New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | 62% | -106 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | 52% | -145 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Rams | 56% | -175 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh Steelers | 60% | -148 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-12 | Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | 64% | -250 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-12 | Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | 55% | -180 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-12 | Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | 63% | -174 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | 53% | +115 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens | Atlanta Falcons | 55% | -176 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-11 | Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | 55% | -140 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-11 | New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders | New England Patriots | 67% | -195 | LEAN | Won |
| 2026-10-11 | Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 55% | +102 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-06 | New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | 51% | -145 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions | 60% | -195 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers | 55% | -145 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-05 | Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | 57% | -215 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-05 | Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers | 60% | -185 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-05 | Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams | Philadelphia Eagles | 53% | +140 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals | New York Giants | 57% | +116 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-05 | Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys | Houston Texans | 65% | -162 | LEAN | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars | 51% | +120 | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-10-02 | Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | 53% | -150 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-10-01 | Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles | 57% | -230 | COIN FLIP | Lost |
NFL prediction questions
How does the NFL model make a prediction?
It rates every team on margin of victory rather than win-loss, carries a separate quarterback adjustment, and accounts for rest and home field. Neutral-site games get zero home-field advantage. A research layer then verifies the confirmed starting quarterback and the current injury report before a number is allowed to publish.
Does the NFL model beat the closing line?
Not on raw accuracy — no public-data NFL model reliably beats the closing line, and ours does not claim to. It is judged on calibration and on closing line value: whether the price published beats where the market closes.
When are NFL picks published?
Thursday games publish once both starting quarterbacks are confirmed. Sunday games publish after Friday's final injury report, when official Out, Doubtful and Questionable designations are known. A game whose starter has not been named is held off the board entirely rather than priced on a guess.
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