AI Contender Series Predictions, Graded in Public
Win probabilities for every bout on Dana White's Contender Series, kept on their own separate ledger. These are unsigned prospects with no UFC tape, so almost every read is honestly rated a coin flip — and the graded record reflects exactly that. Published before the card, graded after.
Every graded Contender Series pick
Published before the event, graded after it. Losses are never removed.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Model % | Tier | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Akbar Abdullaev vs Ednilson Santos | Akbar Abdullaev | 65% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Zevan Hunt vs Mayton Perea | Zevan Hunt | 51% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Oscar Ravello vs Igor Cavalcanti | Oscar Ravello | 56% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Hugo Guillon vs Luis Hernandez | Hugo Guillon | 52% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-15 | Tyshawn Williams vs Antonio Monteiro | Tyshawn Williams | 55% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-09 | Arlind Berisha vs Quentin Pasley | Arlind Berisha | 55% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-09 | Reginaldo Junior vs Isaac Moreno | Reginaldo Junior | 52% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-09 | Apollo Gomes vs Kwon Won Il | Apollo Gomes | 51% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-08 | Christian Natividad vs Colton Loud | Christian Natividad | 55% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-02 | Charlie Cleveland vs Gabriel Lourenco | Charlie Cleveland | 52% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-02 | Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues | Brandon Holmes | 51% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-09-02 | Silvestre Sanchez vs Liam McCracken | Silvestre Sanchez | 53% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-09-01 | Adam Livingston vs Hunter Smith | Adam Livingston | 53% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-26 | Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon | Guilherme Uriel | 57% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-25 | Nick Galanti vs Carlos Petruzzella | Nick Galanti | 62% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-19 | Kaik Brito vs Namo Fazil | Kaik Brito | 60% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-19 | Douglas Rodrigues vs Trent Miller | Douglas Rodrigues | 60% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-08-19 | Cristian Perez vs Logan Paxton | Cristian Perez | 58% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-19 | Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz | Mahamed Aly | 57% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-08-18 | Taner Trembley vs Roman Puga | Taner Trembley | 62% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-08-12 | Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams | Anthony Wint | 56% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-12 | Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir | Fabrizio Escarrega | 57% | COIN FLIP | Lost |
| 2026-08-12 | Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia | Bilal Hasan | 65% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-12 | Tom Pagliarulo vs Ananias Mulumba | Tom Pagliarulo | 56% | COIN FLIP | Won |
| 2026-08-11 | Joseph Kropschot vs Jon Kunneman | Joseph Kropschot | 62% | COIN FLIP | Won |
Contender Series prediction questions
Why are Contender Series picks nearly always coin flips?
The competitors are unsigned prospects with no UFC record, regional results that are hard to weight, and no equivalent of UFCStats for their earlier fights. The matchmaking is also built to produce competitive fights. When the model genuinely cannot separate two fighters it says so rather than manufacturing confidence.
Why is the Contender Series record kept separately from the UFC record?
Because blending them would publish a number that means nothing. An established UFC fighter with years of tape and an unsigned prospect with none are not the same prediction problem, so each competition carries its own ledger.
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Every current pick with its full breakdown. $15/mo, or $10/mo billed yearly. 7 days free.
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