Topuria vs Gaethje prediction & odds

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje · Lightweight Title · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje

Main event · Lightweight TitleUFC

AI Gaethje · KO/TKO

Ilia Topuria

9-0-0

Justin Gaethje

10-5-0

Topuria77%−535 Gaethje23%+400

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RESULT

Gaethje won by KO/TKO

AI Shmoo AI picked Topuria at 77%

Graded at −535 · −1u (1 unit per pick)

Last prices before the start

Ilia TopuriaMarket−535

Justin GaethjeMarket+400

Market = the two-way market line. Pre-fight quotes, kept for the record.

Fight details

Event: UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje
Date: Sunday, June 14, 2026
Main card starts: 11:15 PM ET
Card: Main event
Weight class: Lightweight Title
Records: Topuria 9-0-0 · Gaethje 10-5-0

Fighter pages

How Shmoo AI picks are graded

Every pick is the AI's moneyline call: who wins. The AI picks the side without looking at betting lines. After the official result it's graded at 1 unit per pick at its recorded price, and misses count exactly like hits. No-bet calls and no-result fights are never counted.